Nottingham Forest Faces Historic Goal Drought at Home

Nottingham Forest is in the midst of a goal drought at home, a problem that extends well beyond the arrival of coach Oliver Glasner. They, along with Schalke, are the only teams yet to score at home this season, and Forest's struggle is particularly stark; they are one of just five clubs in the history of the English top flight to go scoreless in their first four home league matches. With Manchester City visiting the City Ground this Saturday, Glasner is under pressure. His side has failed to find the net even in a Carabao Cup match against Leeds, resulting in a staggering total of 70 shots across all competitions without a single goal to celebrate for the home fans. Last season, Forest had only two more goals than the lowest-scoring home team, Burnley, and they drew blanks in nine matches, showcasing a long-standing issue. Historically, the title of lowest home goal scorers in Europe’s top leagues goes to Dijon, who managed just eight goals in 19 Ligue 1 games in 2020-21. Fulham fared slightly better that season, but both clubs netted three goals in their first four matches. Forest's current situation is alarmingly worse. While expected goals (xG) are frequently discussed in post-match analyses, it’s crucial to remember that each shot is independent. A team that has taken 100 shots with a very low xG isn’t guaranteed to score just because their xG has increased. This is precisely the conundrum facing Forest, who have accumulated 62 league shots amounting to 3.58 expected goals but have only converted two of those chances into goals. Their shot quality is lacking, largely because over half of their attempts at the City Ground come from outside the box. This tendency to shoot from distance, which accounts for at least 50.3% of their shots, is a significant factor in their struggles, making them more predictable and easier to defend against. To compound the issue, Forest has shown difficulty in getting the ball into the penalty area. Last season, their home pass accuracy into the box was below the league average, and it has dropped even further this season. Their cross accuracy is also concerning, sitting below the league average last season and deteriorating further this year. These issues have severely impacted their shot accuracy, with only nine on-target attempts at home so far, resulting in a meager 14.5% accuracy rate. For context, even Schalke, who are also struggling for goals, have a better rate at 18.8%. The least accurate home side in the past decade, Parma, managed a shot accuracy of 23.7% in a similarly dismal season. If Forest fails to score against Manchester City, they will face another tough challenge against a recently solid Chelsea side. No team in the English top flight has ever gone without scoring in their first six home games, but Forest seems poised to set this unwanted record.